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Neilson, 59, went into retail management after earning a general studies degree with a business concentration. "The money that I would like to be able to contribute to a retirement account is going to go instead to pay student loans." BI has previously spoken to some other older adults who have struggled with career progression later in life. For example, Crystal, a 62-year-old, never received a college degree, and it's kept her from progressing in the workforce. "With my age, I was just not attractive on paper, and not having a college degree was always a factor, too," Crystal said.
Persons: Kris Neilson's, Neilson, it'll, She'll, I'm, it's, Crystal Organizations: Service, BI, National Bureau of Economic Research, Gallup, Lumina Foundation Locations: Neilson
Biden’s tariff plan likely won’t move the needle for monetary policy, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. “Consumers and producers often pay higher prices when tariffs are implemented.”That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately, consumers. Worse, some businesses appeared to take advantage of the trade war by bumping up prices even higher. Container shipping imports from China to Mexico rocketed higher by 60% in January and 34% for the first quarter, Xeneta data shows. “It’s obvious that imports to this extent are not only for domestic purposes in Mexico,” he said.
Persons: Biden, Joe Brusuelas, Donald Trump’s, Trump, , Ryan Sweet, ” Sweet, Sweet, George W, Bush, Barack Obama, Goldman Sachs, , Wells, Nicole Cervi, “ There’s, ” Cervi, Peter Sand, , Sand, “ It’s Organizations: CNN, RSM US, stoke, Oxford Economics, Biden, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Federal, , US International Trade Commission, New, New York Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Republican, ramped, Container Locations: China, New York, , South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Wells, Mexico
Businesses are adding $90 billion in fees to consumer's bills each year, according to one estimate. US consumers spend more than $650 a year per household on "junk fees," per the CEA. AdvertisementBusinesses are adding $90 billion in surprise "junk fees" to customers' bills each year — and it is starting to backfire. Junk fees are hidden costs that are added to product prices. Last June, President Joe Biden said his administration had taken steps to crack down on junk fees.
Persons: , Noelle Weaver, Bradley Walker, Walker, Merrilee Bridgeman, Joe Biden Organizations: Service, White House Council, Economic Advisers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Wall Street, Democratic Locations: New Orleans, Charlotte , North Carolina
Apple wants to give the iPad a boost
  + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
The tech giant's event will reportedly showcase a new family of… iPads and iPad accessories. But Apple's event , which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST, is looking to give the iPad a boost. iPhone sales have noticeably dipped, which is why you're hearing Apple tout its "services" business , writes BI's Peter Kafka. And the new product Apple wants you to be excited about — the Vision Pro — hasn't lived up to the hype. a16z joins the Big Tech "fake work" debate.
Persons: , Tyler Le, they're, iPads, Antonio Villas, Boas, BI's Peter Kafka, Peter, hasn't, Katie Notopoulos, Wall, Lauren DeCicca, Tim Cook, Katie, aren't, I'd, we'll, I'm, Alyssa Powell, Danielle DiMartino Booth, James Devaney, Roger Kisby, Jack Dorsey's, Elon, Dorsey, Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, OpenAI, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, a16z, Emily Sundberg, Andreessen Horowitz, David Ulevitch, Vladimir Putin, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Apple, Google, Getty, US Treasury, National Bureau of Economic Research, Images, Penske Media, Microsoft, Tech, Paramount, Berkshire, Big Tech, Walt Disney Company Locations: BREIT, New York, London
But some economists have argued that flawed historical economic data puts this claim in question. The further back you go — the NBER data goes to about 1850 — the more common recessions were. He said the NBER's pre-1914 recession data, in particular, is "very poor," and that only economic data collected after World War II is of good quality. "So the growing share of services also means you're going to have more stable economic growth." AdvertisementTo be sure, while a stable economy has its benefits, it's not the only indicator of a healthy economy.
Persons: , they'll, haven't, George Selgin, what's, NBER, Selgin, Joseph H, Davis, Satyam Panday, Panday, it's, they've Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cato Institute, of Labor Statistics didn't, US, Vanguard, US Department of Agriculture, Satyam, Federal Reserve, Fed
Some mornings, Kaitlin Jorgenson travels 544 miles to get to a job she'll be at for 72 hours. Although Jorgenson was ready to leave New York, she didn't want to give up the career she had built there. All in all, Jorgenson estimates she would spend a minimum of $4,000 each month to live and work in Manhattan. Moving to Charlotte, Jorgenson estimates, has saved her at least $2,000 each month — commuting expenses and all. During the weeks she's not in New York, Jorgenson works part-time at Superbloom Hair Studio in Charlotte, a job with flexible hours that change depending on Jorgenson's appointment schedule.
Persons: Kaitlin Jorgenson, she's, she'll, Jorgenson, Scott J, Organizations: Charlotte Douglas International, CNBC, Companies, National Bureau of Economic Research, Corporate Locations: New York City, Charlotte , North Carolina, Brooklyn, Charlotte, New York, , New Jersey, Manhattan, New, LaGuardia, Houston, Chicago, Queens
David Autor seems an unlikely A.I. But Mr. Autor is now making the case that the new wave of technology — generative artificial intelligence, which can produce hyper-realistic images and video and convincingly imitate humans’ voices and writing — could reverse that trend. Mr. Autor’s stance on A.I. Modern A.I., Mr. Autor said, is a fundamentally different technology, opening the door to new possibilities. And if more people, including those without college degrees, can do more valuable work, they should be paid more, lifting more workers into the middle class.
Persons: David Autor, Autor, A.I, Mr Organizations: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, National Bureau of Economic Research, Mr
[About 70% of investors now think a rate cut will occur in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.] Goldman Sachs is currently predicting a 15% chance of recession over the next 12 months, down from 35% last year. Seeing that happen made us more confident that the Fed wouldn’t be forced to cause a recession in order to get inflation down. The reason we say 15% risk is because that is roughly the historical unconditional average. So a 15% recession rate is baseline for you, it will never go below that number?
Persons: Dow, Bell, David Mericle, Goldman Sachs, It’s, it’s, we’ve, I’m, Samantha Delouya, authority’s, ” United, Joe Biden Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Goldman Sachs ’, Bell, National Bureau of Economic, FAA, United, Federal Aviation Administration, United Airlines, United Boeing, , Federal Communications Commission, Program, Lawmakers, ACP, FCC Locations: New York, We’re, Medford , Oregon
Now, a group of them has created an interesting model that suggests much of people's dissatisfaction with the economy comes down to interest rates. In fact, the impact of rising interest rates isn't directly accounted for anywhere in the official CPI report — even though they've also contributed to surging car payments and made credit card debt much more costly. That's why the economists developed their own inflation measure, and they think it provided a more accurate prediction of economic sentiment. Cramer said additional evidence for the impact of interest rates on consumer sentiment has come in recent months. Between November and January, the Michigan consumer sentiment index saw its biggest two-month increase since 1991 — just as mortgage rates fell from their recent peak.
Persons: , Judd Cramer, Larry Summers, they've, hasn't, Harvard's Cramer, Cramer, pocketbooks, it's, Joe Biden's Organizations: Service, Business, National Bureau of Economic Research, Harvard University, International Monetary Fund, of Labor Statistics, University of, Harvard, BLS, Federal, CPI, Federal Reserve Locations: Michigan
Ultimately, it’s very high leverage,” Tomasz Piskorski, a finance professor at Columbia Business School, tells me. Even a year after that exact thing happened — Silicon Valley Bank failed after depositor demand eclipsed the value of its assets — regulators haven’t addressed the core leverage issue. The most obvious answer is one the banking industry hates: Increase the amount of money a bank is required to hold in reserve. And their go-to argument against such regulations is that they force banks to curtail loans to customers, hurting folks in the real economy. The upshot: Despite the banking industry’s protest, banks can handle much higher capital requirements (at least, according to Piskorski et al).
Persons: CNN Business ’, it’s, ” Tomasz Piskorski, there’s, Piskorski, haven’t, Jerome Powell, ” Piskorski Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, New York Community Bank, Columbia Business School, Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, National Bureau of Economic Research Locations: New York, Basel, stow,
An NBER working paper found that older siblings tend to make more money than their younger siblings. AdvertisementFor years, researchers have found that the eldest child tends to earn more money and perform better on cognitive tests than their younger siblings. AdvertisementOther reasons first-born siblings might have an advantageDayal told BI that studies across various countries and contexts have corroborated the idea that older siblings tend to have more education and economic success than their younger siblings. "Interestingly, these benefits start to emerge around age 12, when older siblings have more to teach and younger siblings are more ready to learn." AdvertisementGrant cited a study of 240,000 Norwegian teenagers that found younger siblings who had firstborn siblings die in infancy went on to have higher intelligence scores than laterborns with firstborn siblings.
Persons: , Meltem, Daysal, Younger, Dayal, Sandra Black, Columbia University who's, Adam Grant's, Grant Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Columbia University Locations: Denmark
Go beyond financial literacy"Gone are the days that we can hide behind the illusion that more financial literacy is enough," says Rahkim Sabree, AFC, financial therapist and counselor. Currently, 25 states require financial literacy education for students; however, rarely, if ever, does financial literacy address larger systemic issues that exist. Black students owe an average of 188% more than what white students borrowed by the fourth year after graduation. One 2016 study found that if current trends continue, closing the wealth gap would take more than 200 years. AdvertisementYounger Black Americans have now become the fastest-growing demographic of new investors in the stock market.
Persons: , Martin Luther King, Jr, Moritz Kuhn, Moritz Schularick, Ulrike I, Rahkim Sabree, We've, Kristin Afelumo, Lazetta Rainey Braxton, Braxton Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Black, National Bureau of Economic Research, Economic Policy Institute, AFC, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Netflix, Lazetta, Associates Locations: America, Evanston , Illinois, Black
Double majors are less likely to experience "earnings shocks" like job losses, per a new paper. While it’s unclear why graduates with double majors offered workers this protection, the researchers speculated that it had something to do with their diversified skillsets. A University of Pennsylvania research paper from 2021 found that double majors tended to earn more money over the course of their careers — STEM and business double majors saw the biggest income boost. As of 2015, about 13% of Americans between ages 20 and 29 were double majors, per American Community Survey data. Roughly 10% of the individuals analyzed in the working paper were double majors.
Persons: , Andrew Hanks, , ” Bruce Weinberg Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Stanford, Ohio State University, American, Survey, Ohio State, University of Pennsylvania, US Department of Education Locations: Ohio State
New York CNN —And just like that, two of the world’s largest economies are in technical recessions. On Thursday, Japan and the UK both reported their second consecutive negative quarters of gross domestic product, fitting the widely agreed-upon definition of a recession. In 2022, the nation’s population declined by 800,000, marking the 14th consecutive year of contraction. In the UK, however, population and wage growth weren’t sufficient to stave off a drop in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of that economy. In the past two quarters, the nation’s economy experienced much higher than expected GDP growth, due in large part to robust consumer spending.
Persons: Paul Donovan, ” Donovan, Kazuhiro Nogi, , didn’t, Jerome Powell, , it’s, there’s, Powell, Philipp Carlsson, doesn’t, “ it’s, Carlsson Organizations: New, New York CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management, Getty, National Bureau of Economic Research, don’t, US Federal Reserve, Boston Consulting Locations: New York, Japan, Germany, AFP, Ukraine
Overlaid on that picture is the company name, Grier Shoe Shop, and its address — which is part of an area known as Black Wall Street. With these ventures, she's part of a growing class of Black entrepreneurs tapping into Tulsa's history for inspiration and resources for support. He also won a grant from a Black Wall Street organization. The Black Wall Street Mural in the Greenwood district of Tulsa, Oklahoma, on Friday, June 19, 2020. Greenwood, known as Black Wall Street, was one of the most prosperous African-American enclaves in the U.S. before it was burned down by a white mob in 1921.
Persons: Venita Cooper, Parnia Mazhar, Grier, Silhouette, They've, Cooper, Dominick Ard'is, George Floyd, Ashli Sims, she's, Sims, North Martin Luther King, Edna Martinson, It's, Martinson, LaTanya White, he's, Adesanya, Grant Warner, James Lowry, Lowry, who's, Greenwood, Christopher Creese Organizations: Silhouette, NBC News, Tulsa, Build, Art, NBC, North Martin Luther King Jr, Ku Klux, House, Art Basel, Southwest, Black, Stanford, National Bureau of Economic Research, Creative, CNBC, Harvard Business School, Center for Black Entrepreneurship, Black Economic Alliance Foundation, Boston Consulting, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Greenwood, Tulsa , Oklahoma, TULSA, Tulsa, North, Miami, South, Austin, U.S, PalmPlug, Seattle, America
Read previewClaudia Sahm, the former Federal Reserve economist who developed the Sahm Rule recession indicator, believes the US economy will likely avoid a downturn this year. We solved the labor shortage by getting more labor," Sahm said. "The foreign-born labor force has made a disproportionate contribution to reducing the jobs-workers gap. This has been driven by two factors: above-trend immigration growth and greater foreign-born labor force participation," said Jan Hatzius, the chief US economist at Goldman Sachs, in an August 2023 client note. "Growth in the foreign-born labor force has accelerated by 50k to 160k per month this year, lifted by a surging foreign-born labor force participation rate," Hatzius added.
Persons: , Claudia Sahm, Sahm, doesn't, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, National Bureau of Economic, US, Labor, Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed Locations: flatlining
At its December meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could institute up to three 25-basis-point cuts this year. The first thing Sahm said to look out for is whether or not Powell makes clear that they will not cut rates at the March meeting. If he seems upbeat, it could indicate that the Fed is going to take a more dovish stance and cut rates on the earlier side. This would likely manifest via trouble in financial markets that then affects the real economy. They're taking some big risks in that they're talking about the real economy being resilient, and yet I don't think that's where — if the Fed causes a problem they're doing it in the real economy first," she said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Powell, Stocks, Organizations: Louis, Business, National Bureau of Economic, Fed Locations: St, Sahm
Jamie Dimon said increasing taxes for the rich could enable tax cuts for lower-income workers. AdvertisementJPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon said that rich people should pay more taxes to help struggling lower-income Americans. Dimon, who has previously hinted that he could run for office, spoke about how the Earned Income Tax Credit or EITC could be expanded. The EITC is a refundable tax credit aimed at reducing some of the tax lower-income Americans have to pay annually. Dimon said that "there are so many tax breaks out there that shouldn't be there" for wealthy people.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, , Dimon, filers, Katherine Michelmore, University of Michigan's Gerald R Organizations: Center, Service, Bloomberg, National Bureau of Economic Research, University of Michigan's, Ford School of Public Policy Locations: New York, Washington
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession risks are 'now more politics and geopolitics than economics,' says NBER's LipskyJohn Lipsky, director-at-large at the National Bureau of Economic Research, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the week's economic data, how Lipsky considers the geopolitical climate, and more.
Persons: NBER's Lipsky John Lipsky, Lipsky Organizations: National Bureau of Economic Research
These 16 states are already in a recession
  + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Sixteen US states' economies contracted between July and October, according to the Philadelphia Fed. While some economists believe a recession may come in the next year, the economies of 33 states grew. Meanwhile, looking at just the past month, 27 states experienced economic contraction. AdvertisementThe economies of sixteen US states contracted between July and October, even as economists are still betting the US can avoid a recession. Looking at month-over-month rates, 27 states experienced economic contraction, while just 16 grew.
Persons: , Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Ken Griffin Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Bureau of Economic, Citadel, Bloomberg Locations: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Montana, Missouri , Illinois, Iowa, , Maryland, North Dakota, South Carolina, Texas, Nevada and Wyoming . California, Florida, California, Florida , Pennsylvania , Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina
High interest rates could slow consumer spending and lead to layoffs. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates 10 consecutive times to fight inflation as the country emerged from its pandemic recovery. Here's how experts are feeling about the economy headed into the new year, and whether they think a recession is on the horizon. Some think a recession is likely in 2024Some experts predict high interest rates will take a toll on the economy, making a recession likely sometime next year. AdvertisementOthers think a recession is unlikely in 2024Other experts don't see a recession hitting the US economy in the next year.
Persons: , Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, he's, Ken Griffin, we're, Griffin, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, Marc Lasry, Lasry, Rob Arnott, Jeffrey Gundlach, Bill Adams, Raphael Bostic, Brian Moynihan, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Goldman, Hatzius Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Citadel, UBS, Capital, National Bureau of Economic Research, CNBC, DoubleLine, Comerica Bank, Atlanta Federal Reserve, UCLA, Bank of America, Reuters Locations: United States, Dallas, Atlanta
What Long-Term Care Looks Like Around the World
  + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Jordan Rau | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +4 min
Provinces and territories fund long-term care services through general tax revenue. Notably, Canada’s long-term care system is separate from its national health care system, which pays for hospitals and doctors with no out-of-pocket costs to patients. on long-term care, 80 percent more than the United States spent. Britain has also taken steps to shield people from losing all of their wealth to pay for long-term care. Singapore recently instituted a system of mandatory long-term care insurance for those born in 1980 or later.
Persons: D.P., 🇸 🇬, ove, , Kath l Organizations: Uni, pla, Citi, emi Locations: D. data, nis
Many users would ditch social media in exchange for being paid a small fee, a study found. What if there was an option where everyone else they knew would stop using social media, too? AdvertisementAdvertisementThe researchers found that users would be willing to pay $28 and $10 "to have others, including themselves, deactivate TikTok and Instagram, respectively." Social media remains a key resource for people looking for a convenient way to keep on top of updates from friends, colleagues, and current affairs. AdvertisementAdvertisementThat said, the results underscore a view that people feel compelled to use social media despite how awful it can make them feel.
Persons: , they'd Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economics Research
The fight over return-to-office is getting dirty
  + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Ed Zitron | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +13 min
Evidence is as evidence doesAs the return-to-office battle has heated up in the past six months, there has been a marked increase in declarations that remote work is less productive. The researchers determined that remote workers were 18% less productive than their in-person counterparts. Just the vibesDespite the limited evidence against it, corporations are increasingly trying to kill remote work. That's what makes the move to kill off remote work so frustrating. It's not clear that the return-to-office move is about making workers more productive or building a better culture.
Persons: it's, Mike Hopkins, they're, India —, Nicholas Bloom, who's, David Baszucki's, Geico, Amazon's Andy Jassy, Geico's Todd Combs, there's, Safra, Larry Ellison, wrongheaded, galvanizing sycophants, Ed Zitron Organizations: Amazon, Amazon Studios, National Bureau of Economic Research, Journalists, Stanford, Meta, , Writers Guild of America, SAG, United Auto Workers Locations: India
It's a terrible time to be a HENRY
  + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +8 min
Their wage and job growth is slower than lower earners, they're piling on debt, and childcare costs are soaring. Workers with earnings in the bottom 10% of wages saw higher wage gains than those in the top 10%. AdvertisementAdvertisementWhile wage gains have stabilized a bit, the bottom half of workers are still notching greater gains than those at the top. Meanwhile, the already rich — those who make over $250,000 — only saw their childcare costs increase by about 4%. As the labor market continues to slow, and childcare costs only rise with the end of pandemic-era subsidies , it might continue to be a bad time to be a HENRY.
Persons: , there's, Aaron Terrazas, What's, Priya Malani, HENRYs, Goldman Sachs, they're, HENRY Organizations: Service, MIT, University of Massachusetts Amherst, of Economic Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America Institute, Walmart, Consumer Finances, Federal Reserve, Fed
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